As the Premier League and the NFL both move on to the business end of the season, I thought I'd take a look at how this season’s long-term positions have been getting on and, more importantly, what to do with them from now:
1) ASTON VILLA POINTS – BOUGHT AT 56.5, CURRENTLY 63.5-65
Except perhaps for their cross-city rivals Birmingham, Aston Villa are probably the success story of the season. They top the Racing Post’s table of the most profitable teams for punters to back this year and buyers of their points are, I can assure you, pretty pleased with them too. The current total stands on 35 after 20 games: they actually reached this two games ago, but have since suffered defeats to Arsenal (deserved) and Liverpool (totally undeserved). To close out now is in effect selling at 28.5 for their final 18 games, which sounds reasonable enough to me. The smallness of Villa’s squad is well-documented, and fixture congestion could become a real issue, with a postponed two-legged Carling Cup semi-final still to come, and a decent FA Cup run looking very possible. So I'll take the 7 point profit and a pat on the back!
2) MAN CITY POINTS – SOLD AT 65.5, CURRENTLY 68.75-70.25
Looking back, this was an example of having the right idea but failing to execute it correctly. Man City this season have been everything I anticipated: inconsistent and unpredictable, yet occasionally inspired. Hughes was found to be as out of his depth as I always thought he was and ended up losing his job. Yet a points total of 35 from 19 games (the same points as Villa, incidentally) is a decent enough return and, in hindsight, maybe 65.5 was too low a price to be selling at. City’s squad is still scarily talented and despite the question marks over Mancini’s pedigree in England – and a potentially damaging January while the African Nations Cup takes place – I still think they’ll reach another 35 points from their next 19 games. I’m leaning towards closing out of this too for a 4.75 point loss.
3) BURNLEY POINTS – BOUGHT AT 32, CURRENTLY 33-34.5
The departure of Owen Coyle is a huge blow to Burnley, there is no point denying it and anyone who’s backed them to stay up might be starting to panic a little. Luckily I only bought their points, which are on 20 after 20 games. I suppose I could take the one point profit here and now, but is there really any point in paying a 1.5 point spread for it? Burnley’s points will surely make up somewhere between 30 and 40. I’ll let it ride and hope for the best.
And over to the NFL:
4) NEW ORLEANS SUPER BOWL INDEX – SOLD AT 50, CURRENTLY 54-57
Despite being offside, this is in many ways the bet I’m most happy with. I recommended selling the Saints after Week 6 when they stood undefeated at 6-0. Since then, they have won 7 more games and were in all probability a narrow defeat to the Dallas Cowboys away from going through the season unbeaten. They’ve claimed the #1 seed in the NFC and are almost certainly the strongest team in their conference, if not in the whole NFL. And yet despite all of this, they are still only trading 4 points higher than what I sold at. This feels like a result in itself, but I see no reason to get cold feet now. The Saints appear to be imploding, their once-potent offence is struggling and their overperforming defence is now riddled with injuries. Unfortunately the sell can’t make up any lower than 33 any more, but frankly I can’t see the Saints in the Super Bowl at the moment, so it shouldn’t make up any higher than 50.
5) BALTIMORE RAVENS SUPER BOWL INDEX – BOUGHT AT 18, CURRENTLY 28-31
And from the slightly offside to the very onside. The Ravens snuck into the playoffs ahead of Pittsburgh, meaning that even if they lose their wildcard game versus the Patriot, they will still make up 20 at worst. However, as number 5 seeds, they are almost guaranteed to play every game on the road, starting off with an intimidating trip to New England on Sunday. And if they win that, it’s a trip to either the Colts or the Chargers. Not great news for a team who, despite their late winning streak, haven’t come together this season fully as I was hoping and, frankly, look a little average. I will be looking at a close at 28 and the banking of another 8 points.
JW
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