Green 34, Omaha, Omaha, hut hut hut! Yep, the NFL season has been back up and running for several weeks now and has been as fascinating and unpredictable as ever. Betting at the start of the NFL season can seem like a lottery at time, but having had a decent amount of time to look at and evaluate the leading contenders, I’ve identified a couple of value bets – in theory at least! – on the Super Bowl Outright index.
Just to clarify, the Outright Index awards 100 to the eventual World Champions (sic), 70 to the runners-up, 50 to the Conference finalists, 33 to Divisional Play-offs losers and 20 those who only reach the Wild Card Play-off. Phew! In short, 12 of the 32 NFL will ‘cash’ but not necessarily enough for buyers to get their whole stake back.
1) SELL NEW ORLEANS AT 50
Getting against the New Orleans Saints? Sounds mad I know. And their early season form has been extraordinarily good. 6-0, including convincing wins against the Eagles, Giants and Jets. Drew Brees is looking like a shoo-in for season MVP, the defence is the best they’ve had in years, while the offence racks up 45+ points on a stunningly regular basis. What’s not to like? Well, you could point to the fact that the Saints have never reached the Super Bowl in their history and have a group of players who are yet to show they can handle the extreme pressure of the NFL play-offs. And then there’s the fact that the defence, while leading the NFL in turnovers and having generally played out of their skin so far, still rank in the bottom half of the NFL in points allowed. If the offence doesn’t fire in the play-offs for whatever reason, can they really be relied on to win the Saints the game?
But my main reason for selling is historical. Simply put, every year in the NFL there’s a team who over-perform at the start of the season only to revert back to type later on. Last year it was Tennessee, who went 9-0 only to lose in the first round of the playoffs. A few years before exactly the same happened to Kansas City. If a team are going to stay hot, it helps if they’re used to being up top. The 2007 Patriots were; the 2009 Saints are not. Selling at 50, I’m willing to take my chances that New Orleans eventually fall back down to earth with an early play-off exit.
2) BUY BALTIMORE AT 18
The Baltimore Ravens were subject to a pre-season gamble and this looked justified as they charged to a 3-0 start. With sophomore quarter-back Joe Flacco leading his offence like a wizened old pro, it seemed that for the first time in many a year, Baltimore were strong on both sides of the ball. Since then however, the Ravens have skid to three consecutive losses and currently lie third in a horribly competitive-looking AFC North. Furthermore the Baltimore defence is looking far shakier than usual. It has been suggested, or whispered rather, that the renowned unit featuring Ray Lewis, Ed Reed et al. isn’t what it used to be. The stats bear this out: they rank 16th in points allowed and 19th in total yards. So why buy them on the index at all, never mind at a still high-ish looking 18? It’s all about potential. This team, potentially, is one of the very best in the NFL. If the defence can sort out their recent issues and revert to the previous form, and the offence keeps firing as it has been, then 18 could look cheap in a few weeks time. The two teams above them in the AFC South, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, are both two games ahead at 5-2 but neither has looked unbeatable this season, and Cincinnati, especially, could find themselves pipped by the Ravens to a wildcard spot.
So we can add the Saints and the Ravens to the long-term portfolio which already includes Aston Villa, Man City and Burnley. It’s been a decent start in the Premier League so far, so here’s to more success in the NFL.
JW
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