The sports spread betting blog

Glorious Goodwood - 28/7/09 until 1/8/09

Day Two of this year’s Glorious Goodwood dominated the pages of Wednesday’s Racing Post, especially the Sussex Stakes which offered the exciting prospect of the so-called ‘super filly’ Ghanaati battling this year’s leading colts, including Rip Van Winkle and Paco Boy. However, all of the races across the day promised to be competitive and it seemed an exceptionally tough day to try and pick a winner.

Instead, I decided to get myself involved with card markets available with the spread betting firms, which aggregate the results of all seven races in the day. Total winning distances caught my eye: the quote of 10.5 – 11.5 seemed high on a day with few short-priced favourites and a number of short, competitive looking races. I would have had the quote in for perhaps a point lower so, rather speculatively I CHOSE TO SELL DISTANCES AT 10.5.

Here’s how the day went, race by race:

1) 14:10: 2m 5f handicap. Oh God, what a race to start with – an epic staying race run over about as long a distance as you ever get on the flat. I’m assured by my pal who knows these things that the handicapper over the years has ensured it’s a tight contest, rarely making up over 1.5 lengths. Naturally, Sweetheart is absolutely smashed out by Jimmy Fortune and wins by 3.75 lengths. Not an ideal start, to say the least.

2) 14.45: 7f sprint. Xtension, the 7/2 favourite, is nowhere to be seen 2 furlongs out but suddenly starts storming its way past the field along the outside. I thank the Lord the finishing post appears when it does, as this horse was travelling, extending its lead at a quite scary rate. In the end I escape with just 1.25.

3) 15.25: 1m Sussex Stakes. The definite highlight from the day’s card and probably the biggest race from the whole Glorious Goodwood festival. Perhaps surprisingly, Johnny Murtagh sends 6/4 favourite Rip van Winkle out early, with a good 4 furlongs still remaining. Undeterred. he charges past a high class field and built up a decent 3 length lead which his rivals, despite my urging them on fail to make much of a dent in. A most impressive performance leads to an unwelcome 2.5 length victory.

I’m on 7.5 lengths with four races still remaining and this is already looking like damage limitation.

4) 16:00: 1m 4f handicap. A standard enough race won by Classic Vintage, under Jim Crowley, who takes the lead 2 furlongs out and holds on for a 2.25 length win. Except for reasons I fail to understand, it’s given as 2.75 lengths! It might only make half a point’s difference for me, but at this stage every extra millimetre is painful.

We’re on 10.25 after four and I have a quarter of a length to play with and three races remaining. This could get ugly.

5) 16:35: 6f Maiden Fillies stakes. Ah, wonderful news – I’m already in trouble and now have a maiden race full of untried fillies, one of which could be the new Rainbow View. Fortunately Beyond Desire, the eventual winner by 1.25 lengths, probably isn’t.

The in-running quote is now 13.9 – 14.4, so I can close out for a 4 point loss. But where’s the fun in that? I take my chances on the last two races.

6) 17:10: 1m 1f handicap. We’re getting into the grittier end of the card – race-goers are starting to stumble home after one too many G&Ts and terrestrial TV coverage is but a distant memory. Nonetheless, I sit transfixed to Racing UK and watch my best result of the day so far, with 9/2 joint-favourite Alsace Lorraine holding off the pack to sneak home by a neck. This equates to 0.3 lengths, apparently, which doesn’t make a lot of a sense to me. I mean, in what messed-up universe does a neck count towards 30% of a horse’s length? It’s not a bloody giraffe! But I digress.

7) 17:45: 7f ‘Lucky Last’. And so, on 11.8 after 6 races, it all comes down to this. Not to see if I win or not – that was probably decided after race one - but rather to see exactly how much I lose. This doesn’t make it the most enjoyable cheer in the world, but as Frankie Dettori guides home 4/1 shot Axiom to win by just half a length, I heave a sigh of relief.

A 12.3 make-up means a 1.8 point loss, but after 4 races things were looking a lot worse. Indeed, it’s such a turnaround by the end the small loss almost feels like a winner. Almost.

JW

England v Australia, second Ashes Test - 16/7/09 to 20/7/09

First of all, apologies for the lack of updates on the blog in recent weeks, but even the most committed punters need a break from their constant diet of live sport every once in a while. Since I last wrote, Wimbledon transformed from being a poor tournament betting-wise into a total disaster – needless to say, getting short of total games in the final was not the greatest idea I’ve ever had, especially when that final turned out to be the longest in Wimbledon history! Still, it could have been worse: I could have sold cross-courts like a friend of mine did. He sold at 100, it made up 351 for a painful 251 point loss. Ouch!

I decided to ease myself back into the fold with an interest bet on the Ashes. My initial instinct at the start of series had been to get with Australia and the first Test did little to dispel me of that notion – despite England escaping with a draw, there appeared to be a clear a gulf in class between the sides. This was borne out in the betting for the next test at Lord's, where the layers made Australia strong favourites on a ground where they hadn’t lost an Ashes test in 75 years. Their 25:10 price (which makes up 25 for a win and 10 for a draw) was 13-14.5, while England’s was at 8-9.5.

However, one nagging doubt put me off piling into Australia – this was the last wicket stand between Anderson and Panesar which had saved the first Test for England. Cricket series often turn on a single moment and I had a feeling that this epic, unexpected escape could be one. Thus I took the unusually sensible decision to watch the opening session of the day to see how England were getting on before making my move.

From England’s point of view, this could hardly have gone better. Strauss and Cook propelled their side to 126-0 at lunch with a supreme batting performance. Although it was still early days, that final wicket stand in Cardiff was starting to look pivotal. I had successfully talked myself out of backing Australia for the match, but did I have the courage to push my chips towards England instead?

I umm-ed and err-ed for most of the lunch break and just before Ben Hilfenhaus’s opening over of the second session I decided to BUY ENGLAND’S 25:10 AT 13.5. With such a solid platform to build off, and rain forecast for later in the week, I found it hard to see how England would lose the game from this position. I later rethought that theory, and decided that, with England being England, I could see them losing a game from almost any position, but by that stage the bet was on.

For once, my bet was not the signal for the familiar tumble of England wickets – totally the opposite in fact, as Strauss and Cook pushed on all the way to 196-0 before Cook fell lbw to the otherwise appalling Mitchell Johnson. The inevitable English collapse took until the second morning to occur, with Strauss failing to add to his 161 of the previous day and two more wickets falling for 14 runs leaving England rather precariously balanced at 378-9. But then came Jimmy Anderson’s second important contribution with the bat in two innings as he and Graham Onions put on a thoroughly entertaining, Lord’s record of 47 for the last wicket.

England suddenly had some momentum going into the change of innings and, sensing that the bowling attack would be galvanised by their collective effort with the bat, I played the ‘momentum’ card again and topped up my earlier position by BUYING ENGLAND’s 25:10 at 13.

If at that stage you’d offered me Australia to be 156-8 at the close of play – well, the phrase ‘I’d bite your hand off’ springs to mind. But that’s exactly where they were thanks to four wickets from Anderson, who was fast becoming my own betting hero. England chose not to enforce the follow-on once Australia were eventually all out for 215, instead putting on 311-6 themselves and effectively batting Australia out of the game.

With my worst case result now effectively a draw, and a make-up of 10, I was happy to sit out the rest of the Test and watch England – a few hairy moments aside – clinch a reasonably comfortable 115-run victory over the Old Enemy. Scenes of jubilation erupted around Lord’s – and my television screen too – as a 75 year curse was finally lifted. And to think that my initial instinct had been to back Australia...

JW