The sports spread betting blog

Wimbledon 2009 – the story so far

Strawberries and cream. Manicured grass courts. Tennis whites. Pimms. Mediocre performances from mediocre British players. Yes, there’s a lot of reasons to like Wimbledon and I haven’t even mentioned yet the myriad of betting opportunities. With 254 matches played in the Men’s and Women’s singles events, surely it can’t be that hard to turn a profit from a few wise spread bets…?

Well, that’s the theory at least. For as we rejoin The Championships halfway through, it has been something of a struggle betting-wise. Things weren’t helped by a self-imposed handicap before the tournament had even begun: I foolishly backed Rafael Nadal to win the tournament with one of the fixed odds firms that were not offering ‘non-runner, no bet’. Even by recent standards, to be in deficit before the tournament had actually begun was particularly impressive.

Since the tennis actually started, my tournament strategy has consisted of three major tenets:

1) Get with Juan Martin Del Potro
2) Get with Juan Carlos Ferrero (pictured above)
3) Get against Ivo Karlovic

I’d like to think there was sound reasoning behind all of these, but they have produced mixed results. Ferrero’s recent resurgence has come as little surprise to his most loyal fans (i.e. me) who never lost faith in the former French Open Champion and World Number 1. This grass-court season, Ferrero has lent further credence to his own theory that fast courts now represent the former clay-court specialist’s best chance of success.

So far, he has recorded victories over Youzhny, Santoro and, most recently, Fernando Gonzalez in a phenomenal five-set contest full of attacking brim and sensational shot-making. Scheduled to face Gilles Simon in the 4th round, Ferrero’s ‘so-far’ currently stands at 5 on the tournament outright index, ensuring that those of us who bought him at 2.5 pre-tournament will at the very least double our money.

(FYI, the outright index makes up: 60 to the tournament winner, 40 to the losing finalist, 20 to the semi-finalists, 10 to the quarter-finalists and 5 for making the last 16)

King Juan Carlos has represented all that’s good about my Wimbledon so far. Unfortunately, he’s been pretty much my only success story. Most disastrous was my brief flirtation with the fifth-seeded Juan Martin Del Potro. Doubts had been raised pre-tournament concerning the French Open semi-finalist’s lack of experience on grass and, in particular, how the 6’6” giant would cope with the skidding, low bounce of the balls.

A first round 6-3 6-1 6-2 demolition of last year’s quarter-finalist Arnaud Clement was enough to persuade me that these fears were unfounded and so, fatefully, I piled into the Argentine, buying him on the outright index at 13. To say I didn’t get a run for my money would be an understatement; Del Potro lasted just three further sets in the tournament, all won by his second round opponent, Lleyton Hewitt. While the tennis world marvelled at the class demonstrated by the 2002 Wimbledon Champion – who looked far more at home on the grass of SW19 than his gangly opponent – I was left to come to terms with a 13 point loss.

Talking of big men looking ill at ease at Wimbledon, the 6’10” Croat Ivo Karlovic has struggled more than most in recent years. Despite regularly performing well at Queen’s and Nottingham in the lead-up to Wimbledon, he had suffered four straight first round defeats at the All England Club, most of which were against unheralded opponents. With such a record, the chance to sell his 25:0 at 21.5 against the Slovak Lukas Lacko was too good to turn down.

Karlovic promptly won in straight sets meaning another losing bet for me. Undeterred. I sold his 25:0 again in the next round, this time against Steve Darcis, a quarter-finalist at Queen’s. Karlovic again won in three. Sensing a pattern, I dodged his third round match against Jo Wilfried Tsonga, in which Karlovic’s unplayable, unbreakable serve was the key to another victory. Old habits die hard however and I’m already lining up a way to get against Dr Ivo in his fourth round clash with Fernando Verdasco – a match, which, amazingly to my eyes at least, the Croat is set to go off favourite.

So that’s the week that was for me at Wimbledon. Pretty disastrous so far, but at least – unlike every Brit bar Andy Murray – I’m still in the game, with a chance to turn things around. What price Juan Carlos Ferrero 2009 Wimbledon Champion?

JW

England vs Pakistan, Twenty20 World Cup – 09/06/09

God bless the England cricket team. Just when you think that they can’t plunge new depths of ignominy, they crash to a defeat so unexpected, so downright humiliating that it temporarily usurps all of their previous efforts. It doesn’t take long however for the latest shock to subside to merely another ignoble inscription on the pantheon of Great England Cricketing Disasters.

And so alongside Zimbabwe ’92, New Zealand ’99 and Australia ’07, we can add Holland ’09, after a memorable Friday night’s cricket at Lords when the Netherlands managed to defeat England off the last ball in the opener of this year’s Twenty20 World Cup. Never mind that England put on 100-0 off their first 11 overs, never mind that Stuart Broad had three run out chances and a potential caught-and-bowled in his shambolic final over; no, England still managed to achieve an impossible looking defeat.

As the Dutch celebrated their most unlikely triumph, captain Paul Collingwood was left with the unenviable task of trying to rally his men for their upcoming match against Pakistan at the Oval. This contest was suddenly transformed from a meaningless tie between two sides guaranteed qualification into a must-win match for England, lest they depart their own T20 tournament at the earliest possible stage.

And yet, despite all of this, England amazingly started the match against Pakistan as slight favourites. Now I don’t profess to be any great expert on cricket (or any other sport for that matter), but this just didn’t seem right. Pakistan have always struck me as a quality, if slightly erratic outfit, whereas England are – well – England, an erratic outfit distinctly lacking in quality. Having chosen to get with Pakistan for this match I had a couple of options: either I could simply back them to win at 11/10 with a choice of fixed odds firms or, more interestingly, I could back them on the spreads. It is often remarked that cricket is the perfect spread betting sport and on this occasion I liked the look of the supremacy market, which makes up 1 point per run, or 10 points per wicket won or lost by. The quote here was England / Pakistan 0-8, meaning it was possible to SELL THE SUPREMACY AT 0 and, in other words, back Pakistan off scratch.

DURING THE MATCH

Oh dear. This was one of those bets that was in trouble from pretty much the first ball of the match. England batted first and got off to a blistering start through Luke Wright, who pinch-hit an impressive 34 off 16 balls. What’s more, Kevin Pietersen was playing worryingly well on his return to the side, finding the boundary with what seemed like every shot. Non-stop sixes may be entertaining for the fans in the crowd, but they’re a merciless bombardment on your wallet when you’ve backed the bowling side. Even more frustrating was the Pakistani fielding, with dropped catches and mis-fields galore, not to mention the infuriating habit of attempting the unlikeliest run-out, regardless of potential overthrows. This all contributed to England setting a challenging target of 185, which in truth, Pakistan never got close to chasing. Wickets fell all too frequently in the reply, many of which were brought on by iffy shots, even by the standards of a Twenty20 slogathon.

As I was on course to lose a point per run that Pakistan trailed England’s by, a bit more spirit from the Pakistanis would have been welcome; instead, they meekly made their way to 137 and a 48-run defeat. As the rest of the country celebrated England’s resurgence as a cricketing superpower, I looked back on a Great England Cricketing Disaster of my own making.

JW

Williams vs Kuznetsova, French Open quarter final - 3/6/09

The last of the women’s singles quarter-finals at the French Open promised to be the best. Serena Williams, the 2002 Roland Garros champion faced the 2006 finalist, Svetlana Kuznetsova of Russia in a match which the bookies were having trouble calling. Kuznetsova’s form over the clay season had been more solid than Serena’s, who as usual had undergone an in-and-out campaign marred by fitness issues and inconsistent performances in the lesser events.

Serena had wobbled a couple of times en route to the quarter-finals, dropping sets to unsung journey-women Klara Zakopalova and Maria Martinez Sanchez, while Kuznetzova, in contrast, had continued her impressive form, dropping just the one set in her first four matches while asserting herself as the clear second favourite for the tournament (behind the seemingly unbeatable Dinara Safina).

There is little doubt that were this match taking place in your average non-descript stop on tennis circuit then Kuzzie (as she’s known to her mates) would have started as clear favourite. However, as followers of women’s tennis know all too well, Serena in a Grand Slam is a different animal to at any other time: her motivation and competitive spirit is unquestionable and her performances speak for themselves (she has just the 10 Grand Slam titles to her name). Thus, a match where Kuzzie seemed the clear jolly was now more open for interpretation. One spread betting firm, taking a view on the match at odds with much of the market, went so far as to make Serena favourite.

Now, as good as her Grand Slam form may be, this seemed a step too far for me and, putting my faith in the Russian’s solid all-court game and praying that she would, for once, be able to close out a match against a top player, I DECIDED TO SELL SERENA’S 25:0 AT 12.75.

This meant that I would win 12.75 points if Serena lost and lose 12.25 points if she won – in other words, I was taking umbrage with the firm’s view that Serena was slight favourite for the contest and putting my faith in the talented, if flaky, Russian.

DURING THE MATCH

Kuzzie came flying out of the blocks on Court Suzanne Lenglen, winning the first three games of the contest and quickly asserting herself as a warm favourite for the match. After barely 10 minutes, my bet was seriously onside and I was tempted to close out there and then by buying Serena at 7.25 for a fast 5.5 point win. But then, I thought to myself, why? The bet was in great shape, Kuzzie was playing solidly and Serena didn’t look at the races. No reason to close, I reckoned; instead I’d let the bet ride and continue to enjoy watching this Kuzzie demolition job.

Big mistake, as it soon transpired, for while Serena had started the match looking like she’d just got out of bed, it was unrealistic to believe her sloppy play would continue forever. Williams forced the match into a first set tie-break and, despite a phenomenal series of points which Kuzzie put together to take it 7-3, was still looking in good shape to mount her inevitable charge.

Instead, history repeated itself in the second set: again Kuzzie took a 3-0 lead and at one stage led 5-3, with a chance to serve for the match. But again Serena came storming back, and Kuzzie’s inability to close out matches returned to haunt her as Serena broke twice more to take the set 7-5.

And so the match entered a third and deciding set and by this stage, there was little doubt who was favourite. The market clearly expected Serena to continue apace with her comeback and to close at the start of the set would have required buying Serena at 17, i.e. a loss of 4.25 points.

Instead, I again chose to hold on and let my bet ride, hoping beyond hope that Kuzzie would perform better from behind than she did as a front-runner. At 3-1 to Williams things were looking bleak, but now it was Kuzzie’s turn to mount a stirring comeback of her own. She wasted two match points at 4-5 in the final set after some strong serving from Serena kept her in the match, but Kuzzie refused to be denied and finally clinched the match in Serena’s next service game.

In a topsy-turvy match that showed the very best of the women’s game, it was the Russian who happily prevailed handing me a satisfying, if nerve-jangling, 12.75 point win.

JW