There are so many matches between the top four clubs in England these days. I remember a time when it was so rare that English clubs were drawn against each other in Europe that I wasn't even sure if it was allowed in the rules. It's different nowadays, and when Liverpool and Chelsea were put together yet again for this year's Champions League quarter-finals, you could almost hear the groan from every football fan in Europe.
This collective grumpiness would not just have been because of the repetition of games between these two, but also because the matches over the previous few years had been fairly dull. You could argue that the tension made the games exciting, but not many people genuinely enjoy watching matches that commentators are describing after ten minutes as a 'chess match'. I personally found it hard to believe that Chelsea under Mourinho banging the ball up to Drogba over and over again was really the all time pinnacle of football strategy.
One feature of these Liverpool v Chelsea ties was that goals always seemed to be very low - usually a dour, grinding 0-0 away draw from Liverpool followed by a tight win at Anfield on penalties or by one goal. Last season's ties finished 3-2 (after extra time) and 1-1, but still, the instinctive reaction on which way to trade on total goals would be to sell rather than buy. The problem is that bookmakers are aware of this as well, so total goals quotes for the first leg at Anfield were very low, with a typical quote being 1.95-2.15.
I had a look at average total goals make-ups in recent meetings between the sides, and found that in the last twenty-two Liverpool v Chelsea matches goals had averaged 1.82, and in the Champions League matches between them the average was just 1.25. So one could argue that a sell at 1.95 might still be an idea. I simply didn't fancy it though, although I can't claim that I was tempted to buy either. The first leg finished 1-3, which meant that the second leg would be far more open with Liverpool needing three goals to have a chance of going through. The total goals market was therefore very tricky, with lots of factors to take into account - very low historical average, an average of 3.66 in the last three matches between them, and a game which was likely to be very open.
The spread betting firms were still forced fairly low though, with most quotes being around 2.4-2.6 and 2.5-2.7. I still couldn't bring myself to have a buy, and was regretting this as one of the matches of the season finished in a 4-4 draw. There was a similar scenario for Liverpool v Arsenal recently. It sounded like low goals, especially with Adebayor and Van Persie out, but it finished 4-4 again.
It's now very difficult to know what total goals are going to be like in future matches between the big four. After these high goals make-ups we saw another tight affair last week as Manchester United beat Arsenal 1-0. It's tempting after some high goals make-ups to fall into the trap of thinking that all matches between the big four are going to be goalfests in future, and similarly if there's a couple of chess matches one might be tempted to sell for the next one. The correct answer is obviously somewhere in the middle, which is why it's not a surprise to see the spread betting firms putting out fairly neutral total goals quotes like 2.4-2.6 for the Champions League semi-final second leg between Arsenal and United.
AR
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