The rise and rise of Andy Murray appears to know no bounds. His latest final appearance, in the Miami Masters, represented his fourth of the season so far, out of only five tournaments entered. The fact that the one final he missed was the Australian Open will continue to raise doubts as to whether Murray has the makings of a Grand Slam champion, but – Melbourne aside – his start to the season has been pretty much faultless.
Such stellar progress had not escaped the attention of the nation’s bookmakers, who made Murray a strong favourite for his Miami final with Novak Djokovic. Murray was available to back at as short as 4/9 with some fixed-odds firms, but the market which caught my eye was the 10/5 set supremacy on the spreads.
This spread betting market, which makes up between -20 and +20, awards 10 points to the winner of the match and 5 points per set won by. The quote for the final of 4.5 – 7.5 in Murray’s favour equated to a degree of favouritism towards the Scot that, in my opinion, was a touch too strong.
Murray’s form, as outlined above, was exemplary, but Djokovic himself was coming off a fine win against Roger Federer and, despite his patchy recent displays, on hard courts remains a severe test for any player. This, added the fact that were they playing just six months ago you could reasonably expect the supremacy to be reversed (i.e. for it to be Djokovic ‘over’ 4.5 – 7.5), all convinced me to SELL THE 10/5 SET SUPREMACY AT 4.5.
DURING THE MATCH
Taking a position that runs contrary to the prevailing market view is extremely rewarding if you get it right. On certain occasions though, like this one, you end up feeling like quite a chump. As it was, the match proceeded just as the market had been anticipating. Murray was too much for Djokovic: too strong, too fast, too resilient and just too darn good. He broke the Serb in his very first service game, and again in his second, racing into a 4-0 lead.
Murray was pummelling Djokovic in the way that Djokovic had done to so many inferior opponents over the years. It was merciless and, for sellers at 4.5, it was painful too. I looked in vain for a closing price, but the spread firms were one step ahead of me. By the end of the first set, which Murray won 6-2, the 10/5 supremacy was trading at 14.5 – 17.5. While I had already resigned myself to a probable loss, I had no desire to buy at 17.5 and lock in – or rather lock out – 13.5 points with no chance of getting anything back.
My continued faith in Djokovic nearly paid dividends when he took a 5-2 lead in the second set – even if Murray went on to win the third, the bet making up 15 would still be preferable to a close at 17.5. Such speculation soon turned irrelevant though, as Djokovic contrived to throw away his 5-2 lead in the most spectacular way imaginable, passing up two set points on his way to a 5-7 reverse for set and match.
A 15.5 point loss then and a lesson learned. That Andy Murray, he’s really quite good. I’ll probably think twice about getting against him again.
JW
