The sports spread betting blog

Newcastle v Everton, Premier League - 22/2/09

Everton have had a strange season. They'd been under pressure to spend money during the transfer window in the summer, and the £15 million fee for Maroune Fellaini on deadline day looked a bit of a panic buy. It also didn't make that much sense in terms of how well he'd fit into Everton's system - in Tim Cahill they already had one midfielder who is an impact player, most effective arriving in the box to get on the end of crosses, rather than creating further back in midfield. Fellaini is similar to this.

They tried to play both Cahill and Fellaini in the middle, but this meant that the other central midfield space had to be taken up by a more defensive player like Neville or Castillo while Cahill and Fellaini made their forward runs. This meant that there was no room for Mikel Arteta in the centre of the park, so he was shunted out to the wing, where his influence on matches diminished.

They usually played 4-5-1 with Yakubu up front and it didn't work particularly well, with Everton around mid-table at the end of November. It was at this stage that Yakubu picked up a serious Achilles injury that ruled him out for the rest of the season. Many thought that this would be a disaster for Everton's campaign, as their only other available strikers were the injury-ravaged Saha and unprolific Anichebe. For their next match they essentially played a 4-6-0 formation, Castillo, Arteta, Fellaini and Cahill all operating in the centre of midfield, with Fellaini and Cahill pushing on to act as strikers when Everton were attacking.

This enabled Arteta to pull the strings in the centre of midfield, and the goals were still coming, mainly from set pieces and Cahill or Fellaini headers. Everton's superb defence and solid set-up meant they went on a run five wins out of six following Yakubu's injury, despite the ridiculousness of the concept of a 4-6-0 formation. Their good form continued, but I worried for them when they signed Manchester City misfit Jo on loan in the January transfer window. I'd seen him play a few times for Man City, and it'd be fair to say he was short on effectiveness as well as letters. He'd done absolutely nothing in any of the games I'd seen him play in, and looked lethargic and disinterested.

I was starting to think that at £19 million and presumably a very large wage he was possibly the biggest waste of money in football of all time. It was difficult to imagine how he could improve Everton. I was more inclined to expect them to get worse, given that the successful 4-6-0 they'd stumbled across would presumably revert to 4-5-1 with Jo up top. However, it looked like I might be proved wrong when Jo played really well on his debut in a 3-0 win against Bolton, scoring two goals.

This may seem like an elaborate and unnecessary ramble on Everton's tactics this season, and perhaps it is, but this was all going through my head when Mikel Arteta was stretchered off with an injured knee a few minutes into the game against Newcastle. Osman, Pienaar, Fellaini and Cahill were all missing the game through injury or suspension, so this meant that Everton were without an entire first choice midfield.

I'd thought that Everton should have been slight favourites before Arteta went off, but he's had such an impact on the fortunes of Everton this year that I thought the game should have been about equal, or Newcastle slight favourites after he went off. All the spread betting bookmakers moved the prices towards Newcastle after the injury, but one bookmaker were still quoting 0.05-0.25 Everton on supremacy. It's subjective how much an individual player affects a team's performance, but I thought they hadn't moved it enough, so had a small SELL OF EVERTON SUPREMACY AT 0.05.

My bet was looking good as Everton were lacking creativity in midfield for the rest of the half while Newcastle had one or two chances, but it all went wrong when Newcastle's Kevin Nolan was sent off for a horror tackle on Victor Anichebe. Going down to 10 men meant that Everton would definitely have to be big favourites in the second half, but I was still hopeful that the lack of guile in the midfield of Rodwell, Gosling, Neville, Castillo and Fellaini (he'd come on as a sub at half time) would make it tricky for them to score. And so it proved, as despite some Everton pressure in the second half, Jo was unable to find the net and the game petered out to a 0-0 draw, giving me a small winner on the supremacy bet.

AR

Jimmy White vs Ali Carter – Welsh Open 17/02/09

The travails of Jimmy White have been well documented over the years. Arguably the most talented, and certainly the most beloved player of his generation, White will nonetheless forever be remembered for being the ‘nearly-man’ of snooker. Recent years have been tough for the six-time World Championship runner-up. White is now 46 and down to 65 in the world rankings; his last ranking event title was five years ago and, to make life even more difficult, he’d been handed an unenviable first round draw in the Welsh Open against one of the most in-form players on the snooker circuit, Ali ‘The Captain’ Carter.

Surely only a madman would choose to back Jimmy White in such a scenario. A madman, or a fearless punter perhaps. For, having scanned the spread betting markets for the Carter vs White contest, one quote really caught my eye and I elected to SELL CARTER / WHITE POINT SUPREMACY AT 140.

Firstly, a word of warning: the point supremacy market is one of the most volatile and, frankly, dangerous markets in the whole of spread betting. Conversely, this also makes it one of the most fun. It works by aggregating the total points scored by each player in a given match and working out the difference between them. So a best of three frame match which ends 100-0, 50-55, 43-44 would end in a 2-1 win for Player B, but a 94 point supremacy win for Player A. Being a spread market, you don’t just want your chosen player to win, but rather to absolutely batter his opponent in every single frame.

A White thrashing of Carter was probably too much to hope for, but I nonetheless had high hopes that Jimmy would put on a decent show for his adoring public. He’d shown some great form during qualifying, thrashing former World Champion Ken Doherty 5-0 (in mitigation, it should be noted that Doherty’s form is on a downward spiral this season so rapid that it makes White’s look mild in comparison) and offered some encouraging noises that he felt back to something near his best. And so, giving up a 140 point start in the match, even to a player of Carter’s class, did seem a little excessive.

DURING THE MATCH

Two frames in, and everything was going swimmingly. After a nervy opening frame, White made a glorious break of 72 to level the match at 1-1 and, more importantly, reduce to point supremacy to just 2 in Carter’s favour. The bet, at this stage, was very much onside. The next hour and a half, however, demonstrated the lightning speed at which this type of bet can go against the punter. Carter reeled off four consecutive frames, winning by 52, 64, 48 and 80 points.

White had his chances during these frames, but missed every one of them. As the match swiftly came towards its conclusion, White cut an increasingly forlorn figure, showing every one of his 46 years. The contrast between the weathered former star, and Carter, this bright, young talent bounding around the snooker table on his way to another big-name scalp, could hardly have been starker.

The damage, in the end, was a 106 point loss (Carter won 376-130). A poor result, by any standards, albeit one on a very volatile market where you stake far less per point than you would normally. Still, watching Jimmy troop out of the arena with his now-familiar hangdog expression, I wondered whether, deep down, I had once again been supporting for the Whirlwind more with my heart than my head. Was this really fearless punting, or just foolhardy sentimentality?

JW

Celtic v Rangers, Scottish Premier League - 15/2/09

One of the most popular ways to spread bet is to try and trade bookings in-running during a game that could potentially turn dirty. It's also very tricky and subjective.

Celtic v Rangers is obviously one of the biggest rivalries in the world, so looked like a fun opportunity to have a play on the bookings. I had a look at the prices available before the match, but I pretty much agreed with the spread betting firms, and wasn't tempted into a buy or sell.

I thought it was likely that I'd disagree with one of them during the match, though. The referee was Callum Murray, who as far as I know had never refereed an Old Firm derby before. His bookings average had been quite low in previous seasons, but a bit higher this season.

The game began in a relatiavely sleepy fashion, with not too many hard tackles going in. It was one of the typically obdurate performances that we've come to expect from Walter Smith's sides when they have a tough away fixture. Rangers' top scorer Kris Boyd was left out of the starting line-up again, but I've already had my say on that decision in the article about Aberdeen v Rangers a few weeks ago.

At half time, there'd been two yellow cards, one of which was to Vennegoor of Hesselink for dissent and another to David Weir for going up for a header too vigorously - both fairly harsh. The game didn't look particularly dirty, and I had my eye on a possible sell. I thought I'd wait to see how the second half started, and as after five minutes there hadn't been any more bad challenges or signs that things were about to kick off, I opted for a SELL OF BOOKINGS AT 52, which is obviously a sell of 32 for the rest of the game.

Things were going pretty well for the fifteen minutes after this bet, until Paul Hartley picked up a yellow for dissent. Then on 76 minutes Scott Brown and Steven Naismith went into a crunching 50-50 and were eyeballing eachother straight afterwards, not something one wishes to see when short of bookings.

The referee booked both of them, to put me on 50 with fourteen minutes to go. I thought I'd still get away with a small loss as there still weren't a great deal of challenges going in, but three more Rangers players got booked for silly timewasting or dissent incidents, to bring the total up to 80 by the end, and a nasty twenty-eight point loss.

I felt hard done by given that there had not been many bad tackles in the match, but this shows that trading bookings in big games like this is always risky, and the amount of cards dished out often doesn't reflect how dirty the match actually was.

AR

Tony McCoy rides for his 3000th winner at Plumpton - 10/2/09

The heavy hand of history can put the mockers on even the most talented of sportsmen; witness how distant Pete Sampras’ 14 Grand Slam titles now must seem to Roger Federer. For most of his career, the Fed Express seemed to be racing towards the record. Now, it is being openly questioned whether Federer will remain forever stranded at just one title behind. For a man who admits to now being primarily motivated by his historical standing in the sport, the sense of disappointment must be unbearable.

A.P.McCoy’s search for his 3000th jumps winner had appeared just as torturous over the last few weeks. After coasting his way up to number 2998 with the minimum of fuss, the 13-time Champion Jockey had stalled, badly, in his attempt to get over the line – a combination of snow, ill-fortune and disappointing rides combining to leave McCoy without a winner in 11 days. McCoy was scheduled for four outings at Monday’s meeting at Plumpton and I didn’t fancy his chances this time either: I was sceptical as to the quality of several of his mounts and suspected that the tense wait for number 3000 might be starting to affect even an experienced pro like McCoy. Thus I chose to SELL McCOY’S JOCKEY INDEX AT 42.

DURING THE MEETING

The jockey index would make up 25 for each of McCoy’s rides that won, 10 for a second place, and 5 for a third. Despite the high quote of 42-45, which reflected both McCoy’s ability and the recent success of Nicky Henderson’s stable (which supplied three of our man’s four rides), I was still hopeful that McCoy would finish unplaced and draw a blank on at least one of his rides. He duly obliged on his first, Excape, which struggled in the extremely wet and heavy conditions and trailed in seventh.

My joy was short-lived however, as McCoy then produced a fantastic ride on Hello Moscow, powering the 4-1 shot through the driving rain to hold off the fast-finishing Spider Boy. It was vintage McCoy, and made a mockery of my pre-race prediction that the pressure of the record might adversely affect him. This left A.P. on 2999 winners, and his index quote on 25 after two races.

Predictably the betting public latched onto his next ride, Miss Sarenne, and the French filly’s odds tumbled from 6/4 into 10/11. McCoy’s index quote rose in-running as a result, but I was not too worried at this stage – after all, Miss Sarenne wouldn’t have been aware of McCoy’s record and she was the one who had put in the dirty work around the tough yards of Plumpton. How foolish I was. With McCoy on top, Miss Sarenne serenely cruised around the two mile circuit, establishing a five-length lead before the last hurdle when, incredibly, just as the sodden race-goers at Plumpton anticipated history being created, she tumbled badly at the last, sending McCoy somersaulting into the mud and in-running punters – some of whom had backed the horse at 1.01 on the betting exchanges – into despair. It was one of those heart-stopping, jaw-dropping moments that racing every now and then produces, and, what’s more, was a real get-out-of-jail-card for my bet.

I had seen enough, and closed out my bet by BUYING McCOY’S INDEX AT 38. This proved to be a wise close, as McCoy romped home on 13/8 favourite Restless D’Artaix to finally break the record and receive the outpouring of adulation from the racing public. As for me, I gratefully took my 4 point profit with an over-riding sensation of relief. It’s not easy work taking on the greatest jumps jockey of all-time, and can feel a bit like swimming against an inevitable tide. Sometimes, however, you can just about make it pay.

JW

Deportivo v Villarreal, Primera Liga, 1/2/09

Here's something about my occasional attempts to win money betting on Spanish football matches that aren't shown on TV. One thing that's quite satisfying in betting is finding a bit of team news that other people might not know, then having a bet based on it and winning.

I found out on Friday that Giuseppe Rossi, pictured above, and Rodolfo Bodipo would miss the match between Deportivo v Villarreal. In case you don't know, and I can't see why anyone wouldn't know loads about rubbish bit-part Deportivo players from Equatorial Guinea, Bodipo's one of the very few sources of goals in a dour Deportivo team, and even though his record is generally poor for someone who usually plays alone up front, he'd scored in four successive games recently.

Giuseppe Rossi's a highly-rated striker who used to play for Manchester United and is Villarreal's top scorer this season. Bodipo would be replaced by Riki, who has an even worse record in front of goal, while Rossi would probably be replaced by the Mexican Guille Franco, who's looked out of his depth whenever I've seen him play for Villarreal.

If the two main strikers are out, then the bet you're going to have your eye on is selling total goals, and I was encouraged further by Villarreal's low goals average away from home and recent poor form. One spread betting firm came out 2.6-2.8 on total goals so I SOLD TOTAL GOALS AT 2.6.

DURING THE MATCH

Sure enough, Riki and Franco started up front, but the bet got off to a disastrous start as Lafita, Depor's only other main source of goals, opened the scoring in the 2nd minute. From what I've read Villarreal put a lot of pressure on for the rest of the match but it was Deportivo who got the goals as Lafita added another and then Riki scored in the second half.

Marcos Senna missed a penalty for Villarreal, perhaps the one small bit of vindication for my bet as the first choice man Rossi would have taken it if he'd played, and presumably would have had a better chance of scoring it. The game finished 3-0 and I finished with a slightly annoying 0.4 point loss.

AR