The sports spread betting blog

Kilmarnock v Celtic, Co-operative Insurance Cup, quarter-final 29/10/08

This exact fixture took place in the League on the 21st September, and the teams met again at Rugby Park in the League Cup quarter-final just a few weeks later. It meant I had a very good guideline on what to expect the prices to be from what they were for the original match, from what happened in the game and from what had happened since.

The market that caught my eye was shirt supremacy, which is obviously derived from goal supremacy. Consider the following facts: the goal supremacy quote for the original match was 0.95-1.15, Celtic won the game 3-1 with Samaras looking excellent and scoring two goals. Since then both teams had been on pretty good runs of form, but Celtic were due to be without the injured Samaras for this match. Celtic were also in the middle of a tiring run of fixtures, having been made to chase the ball all game during the 3-0 defeat to United last week, and then having to come from behind to beat Hibs 4-2 at the weekend.

This suggested to me that, assuming the quote for the original match wasn't way out, one would expect something similar or perhaps slightly more with Kilmarnock. So I was suprised to see one spread firm come out 1.2-1.4. Their shirt supremacy quote was 25-28, very high considering I remember selling at 11 in the original game.

The reason for this was probably the emergence of number 26 Cillian Sheridan up front for Celtic, and the possibility of number 46 McGeady playing upfront, but Kilmarnock had some high-numbered attacking players as well, and Sheridan was likely to be rested, so I thought 25-28 was definitely too high. On that basis, a SELL OF CELTIC SHIRT SUPREMACY AT 25 was in order.

DURING THE GAME

I think the appropriate phrase is 'horror show'. I was correct in predicting that 26 Sheridan would be on the bench, but 46 McGeady started and got forward a lot from midfield. Number 7 Scott McDonald scored for Celtic early on, which was not a big problem. However, they got a free kick just outside the box towards the end of the first half, always a worry when Shunsuke Nakamura, possibly the finest free kick taker I've ever seen, is on the pitch and wearing number 25.

Sure enough, he scored, so we were on 32 at half-time having sold at 25 - a pretty ugly position. Kilmarnock pulled one back through number 11, but none of their big-numbered forwards looked a threat, and the worst case scenario arrived when number 46 McGeady scored at the end of a great move from Celtic. So, shirt supremacy made up 67, meaning this was a 42 point loser, certainly an example of the ups and downs that a spread better will experience.

AR

Manchester United v Celtic, Champions League Group E - 21/10/08

One market in this game that was quite difficult to think about was bookings. Champions League games average about 40 for bookings (10 points for a yellow, 25 for a red), but I thought this was a game that was likely to have a lower make-up than that. One might think that matches between English and Scottish teams would be pretty fiery, but I don't remember it being too nasty when these two teams faced off a couple of years ago, and the bookings make-ups in those games were 30 and 40.

There was a lot of talk before the game about the tradition between the two sides, how they'd had good contests the last time, that sort of thing, which gave me the impression that it might be a bit of a love-in. Another reason for low bookings is that United as big favourites were likely to be comfortably ahead after a while, which could mean the game dying towards the end and players trying to avoid needlessly picking up yellow cards that could lead to future suspensions.

From a stats point of view, United average 30.6 in home games in Europe in the last few years, while Celtic average 30.4 away from home in that period of time. The referee was Franck De Bleeckere from Belgium. I've seen M. De Bleeckere on a couple of occasions before, and he seemed a sensible, experienced and lenient referee who wouldn't be flashing the cards without good cause. He averages 31 in the Champions League, far lower than the 40 I mentioned earlier, despite having done some fairly big matches like Man Utd v Milan and Liverpool v Inter.

On this basis I was quite surprised to see a bookings quote of 42-46. Presumably the spread firm held more stock by the England-Scotland rivalry than me, it's difficult to quantitatively gauge how much effect that's going to have on a game, but I still went for a SELL OF BOOKINGS AT 42.

Jonny Evans was a surprise starter in defence for Manchester United. I remember seeing him look a threat at set pieces in the last few months and making a mental note that he might score some goals for United. Defenders are more likely to score late goals than other players as they're likely to be up for set pieces at the end if the team's desperate to score, so I also had a small BUY OF EVANS PLAYER GOAL MINUTES AT 5.

DURING THE GAME

Bookings was looking very good for a long time. After 74 minutes, the score was 2-0 to United, the game was effectively over, there'd been very few strong tackles or whinges from players, and bookings was on 0. Unfortunately, it was at that stage that Paul Hartley picked up the first yellow of the game.

The tenacious midfielder is someone I consider a walking yellow card to some extent, but he hadn't been expected to start, yet he still managed to come on and pick one up. There was another one from Loovens towards the end so bookings made up 20, a good winner. Despite the fact United got twelve corners, there wasn't much danger of Evans scoring any late goals.

AR

Wales v Liechtenstein, World Cup qualifier - 11/10/08

Many people say that the likes of Liechtenstein, Andorra and San Marino should be made to go through a qualifying round before getting to play the likes of England, but I think this is unfair, especially when you consider how much Liechtenstein have improved recently. In the last few years they've got a 0-0 draw at Azerbaijan, beaten Iceland 3-0 at home and got a 1-1 draw in Reykjavik, beaten Euro 2004 participants Latvia 1-0, drawn 0-0 with Slovakia, hammered Luxembourg 3-0 and 4-0, and most impressively of all drawn 2-2 with Scolari's star-studded Portugal.

 

Many of their players play for FC Vaduz in the Swiss top division, which is a reasonable standard of football. In my opinion they are not quite the minnows that everyone thinks. Wales's labouring performances recently, especially the late 1-0 win over Azerbaijan, made me want to get with the Liechtensteiners in some way in this game. Another thing I've noticed with Liechtenstein is that they often play surprisingly well towards the end of games and create chances. I remember when they were 2-0 down to England a few years ago, they hit the woodwork towards the end of the game and had other opportunities, while England didn't particularly look like increasing their lead.

Wales were due to start with shirt numbers 1 to 11, but their players on the bench would be wearing 12 to 18. I was expecting Wales to get an early low shirt number goal or two and then ease off towards the end when they had their subs on with high shirt numbers. I presumed Liechtenstein

would have higher shirt numbers on by that time too. Because of this, I decided to SELL WALES SHIRT SUPREMACY AT 20 as opposed to selling their goal supremacy at 2.2. My stake size was £5.

Craig Bellamy was due to return to play for Wales in this game for the first time in a year. He's perhaps one of those players whose supposed importance in the team goes up while he's injured, similar to Dean Ashton for West Ham and Ledley King for Spurs in the last couple of years, and this means that his player goal minutes quotes are very high compared to the rest of the team.

I've never thought he's a particularly great striker. He said himself that he wasn’t 100% fit for this game, this suggested he would be substituted early, thereby missing those high goal-scoring minutes at the end of the game. All this was why I SOLD HIS PLAYER GOAL MINUTES AT 37. My stake size was £2.

 

DURING THE GAME

 

The game started pretty promisingly, with Wales having very few chances in the first half and Liechtenstein looking capable of constructing something when going forward. Unfortunately it was the highest possible number who opened the scoring, David Edwards number 11, and after that Wales were comfortably on top.

 

They added another with a header from number 17 Ched Evans that happily deflected in off Liechtenstein's number 10. Shirt supremacy settled at 21, one point higher than what I sold at which meant I lost £5.

I had a lucky escape when Craig Bellamy missed a penalty shortly before half time. Koumas and Bale had missed their last two penalties, so there was always a doubt as to who would take Wales's penalties, Bellamy was a possiblity but I'm still happy that selling his goal minutes at 37 was a good bet. That one was a winner when he was substitued on 81 minutes, handing me a profit of £74.

AR

Kaunas v Rangers, Champions League second qualifying round, second leg - 5/8/08

This was the first competitive match I’d had the opportunity to bet on since the Euro 2008 final. After a look around I’d found some attractive-looking trades.

The first thing I noticed was that one spread betting company were very low on Rangers’ supremacy at 0.6-0.8. I remembered that supremacy for the first leg had been over 2, so for the price to have moved 1.4 goals in between the legs was pretty huge, especially considering home advantage for the first leg would not have been that high, with Ibrox not particularly full, the crowd expecting a comfortable win and likely to get on the players’ backs if that didn't happen.

The first leg had ended 0-0 after a disappointing performance by Rangers at Ibrox, and Rangers had followed that up with a 0-4 hammering at home to Liverpool, but I didn’t consider these two matches to be quite as significant as the spread firm’s traders did. Every time Rangers needed a result away from home in Europe last season, they got one. Added to the fact that the whole fixed odds market was around 4/7 on the Rangers win, which reflects a supremacy of over a goal on the spreads, I went for a BUY OF RANGERS AT 0.8.

I also noticed that another spread firm had gone quite low on Rangers team corners at 5.5-6. I reasoned that Kaunas were likely to be somewhere near the same level as the average Scottish Premier League team (Hearts have been pretty much the same club for the last couple of years anyway).

I looked at how many corners Rangers got away from home last season, filtering the games against Celtic out, since Celtic are a long way from being an average SPL team. The figure was 7.4. Rangers obviously needed to go to Kaunas and score, so they’d hopefully be piling on the pressure, which would yield lots of corners. Along with the fact that they got thirteen in the first leg, I thought this was enough justification for a BUY OF RANGERS TEAM CORNERS AT 6.

One worry was that Burke and Beasley were out, two wingers that like to go to the by-line and cross the ball, which is something that’s obviously going to lead to corners. The other concern was the possiblity of Rangers getting, say, two early goals, completely killing the tie and leaving them content to just pass the ball around far away from that by-line for the rest of the match.

Rangers have controversially signed Kenny Miller this summer, and I thought that he was likely to start on his own up front in this match. Walter Smith started with one up front in most away games last season, especially in Europe, and even when an attacking line-up seemed like a sensible proposition he’d usually go for the dour and trusty 4-5-1.

Miller has played up front alone with great success for Scotland recently, and having started all of Rangers’ last five games, I thought he’d be the only Rangers striker on the pitch, and therefore likely to score a large proportion of their goals. His scoring record recently isn’t great, but that’s mainly because he’s been playing as striker in a horrendous Derby team. Two spread firms were both 16-19 on his player goal minutes, I made this too low so went for a BUY OF KENNY MILLER AT 19.

DURING THE GAME

My bets on this game were looking promising early on. I was correct in predicting that Miller would play a lone role up front, so my buy of his goal minutes was looking like a sensible trade.

In the opening stages, Rangers were looking a bit sluggish in midfield but were pressing for a goal. Miller looked particularly dangerous, and lobbed over the bar when clean through on goal at one point. Rangers won three corners in the first half hour and it looked like more were coming.

Rangers deservedly took the lead in the 33rd minute when Steven Thomson was put through by Nacho Novo to score. Obviously this was good for my supremacy bet, but it was also bad for my buy of Rangers corners, as they now didn't particularly need to continue putting pressure on the Lithuanian side.

Kaunas were beginning to get back into the game for the remainder of the first half, and grabbed an equaliser from a free kick just before half-time. I was hopeful that Rangers would be stung into action at the start of the second half, resulting in a flurry of Rangers goals and corners.

However, I’d under-estimated the dourness of Walter Smith’s side. They would go through on away goals with the score at 1-1, and it looked like they’d decided to try and sit on their lead. There was no creativity at all in midfield and little sign of many more goals or corners.

Velicka missed a fantastic chance to wrap up the tie for Rangers at 1-1, and worse was to come when Kaunas deservedly scored with four minutes to go to make it 2-1, leaving no time for Rangers to respond with any goals or corners. So, 1.8 points lost on the supremacy bet, two points lost on the corners, since they only got one more after three in the first half-hour, and no return from the buy of Miller’s player goal minutes.

On the positive side, with Rangers out of Europe for the season I won’t have to experience again the frustration of needing a goal from a team with a central midfield of Lee McCulloch and Christian Dailly.

AR